Given how monstrously hot it is, and has been, I am actually kind of hesitant to do this. If they push the risk down south, I may actually go out.
Allow me to break down what you are looking at. Damaging wind threat is really the only mode of concern here.
The chance of damaging winds are shown on the probability key on the bottom right. anything above 15% is usually considered significant, in terms of both genuine chance of occurrence and potential intensity.
The Intensity Key on the right of the probability, those are called Conditional Intensity Groups, at levels 1, 2 and 3, and are derived using historical data spanning the past 20 years, and convey potential intensity. They are issued when a combination of the probability of a specific threat (tornado, wind, and hail), and the overall risk level (marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, high) intersect at certain points. I.e for wind, a CIG 1 will be issued in an enhanced risk zone of 30% wind probability. Theres more to it but thats the lowdown.
For the chase setup, there is in place a very unstable (~3600 J/kg), and buoyant (the upward force applied by the air on any object in it) airmass. Lots of lift to go around. The catalyst is a small area of elevated vorticity (atmospheric spin) spawned when a chunk of this bouyant airmass interacts and pivots around an isobar. This will ideally spark off thunderstorm development in earnest.
Do I necessarily want to chase in this heat? Actually, not really. Given that the apex of the severe threat is so close to me anyways, I wont actually have to move that far. I also think the bust potential is high because the amount of energy to actually get convection (measured as convective inhibition or CINH in J/kg) is higher than the energy present. I don't want to get sweaty for nothing.
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Rose✨
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You are so smart I can barely even read this💀 But I learned something, thank you🥴
pennstationofficial
you storm chase??
yep!
by Pancreas Harvester
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omg cool! for how long? i always wanted to do it but unfortunately i have parents who would be sad if i died so they dont let me.. but i love storms sm i always go outside during them
by pennstationofficial; ; Report
Since I could drive really, though I kicked it off more seriously about 10 years ago. A lot of the time, the problem is positioning, and getting from point X to point Z, not so early that youre waiting forever but not too late that you miss the entire thing. As long as you understand what types of storms you are dealing with, most of the time you wont have any problems.
by Pancreas Harvester
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good to know. thanks for telling me a bit about it :]
by pennstationofficial; ; Report