To be or not to be

This is on short notice, but the bust potential was and still is way too high with this one. We have been skunked out of strong storms before, and I have no reason to expect the same wont happen again. I will not chase this, as I have to work. ETA is afternoon 7/21/2026

That being said, here's the really quick and dirty rundown, because I do not feel like getting into the weeds with this setup. An already progressing surface cyclone over Canada will eject northeast toward Quebec. In doing so, it will intensify a shortwave trough, aided by the pivoting of a very powerful high pressure ridge locked over the 4 corners. The particular angle when the trough slams directly into the mid Atlantic will be conducive for a damaging wind event. I think the core of the severe threat will be around a corridor stretching from northeastern KY to NJ, extending partly into southern PA and into the DMV region of VA. 

The specific angle, which will introduce somewhat perpendicular flow aloft at 850 mb or the low levels of the atmosphere (~1.5km up) should yield a low end tornado threat in this region, but dont expect this to be the main driver of the damage. Instability will be deceptively low, think low 1500 J/kg, but there will be a MASSIVE amount of wind shear available. 

Storm prediction center stays strong at a wind driven enhanced risk. If you are in the area, and want to chase, WV is sketchy due to mountains, id avoid charleston area, panhandle of WVA, pittsburg/altoona/harrisonburg corridor, DMV/all of maryland are viable. NJ is sketchy, if you have to, target the western part of the state. Avoid fringe zones like northern PY/frankfurt KY/Fredricksburg VA. 

Be aware that this will be a wind driven threat, the primary storm mode is linear, with embedded supercells, if a tornado forms it will likely be rain wrapped with minimal lead time, and probably pretty weak, say ef0-ef1. Expect straight lined non tornado winds up to 70 mph, possibly 80 in isolated cases.